Future map for plastics – in what kind of world will we live in 2050?

What would the future of plastics look like in a world where ecological, social and economic crises are increasing and the carrying capacity of nature is almost exceeded? In this scenario, people learn to live with crises and disadvantages and respond to them.

What if… the environment becomes unpredictable? The planet’s carrying capacity has already been partially exceeded, what if this trend continues? What if we cross the Earth’s critical tipping point?

What if… we try to find the culprits? In the EU, cosmetic companies already pay to reduce microplastic pollution. What if eco-terrorism rises in the future? In Chile, a letter bomb was sent to the head of a mining company. Who is responsible for ocean-bound plastics?

What if… extreme phenomena change consumption patterns? What is the role and potential of plastics and plastic products in preparing for crises such as extreme weather events or power outages? At the moment, several plastic products, such as canisters and tents, are utilised in preparing for difficult situations. Can their significance increase in the future?

Sources:

• Planet’s carrying capacity already partially exceeded
• EU will force cosmetic companies to pay to reduce micropollutants
• Eco-Terrorist Parcel Bomb Explodes at Chilean Mining Head’s Home (external link, opens in a new window) 

What are the challenges and opportunities for plastics in a future where the production and consumption of fossil and bio-based plastics is growing and flourishing in new areas? In this scenario, plastic waste multiplies and consequential damages increase and their consequences are managed.

What if… plastics production continues to grow and there are new areas associated with the growth? Based on current projections, the use of plastics is expected to at least double by 2050.  How will plastics production change in this time or what raw material will be used for plastics?

What if… the amount of plastic waste increases at the same time? Or can the use of plastics increase without increasing the amount of waste? What changes must be made so that the amount of plastic waste does not increase, and what will be the use of plastics then?

What if… there is no escape from microplastics? Microplastics have been found in breast milk, mouse brains, sea fauna, and even in the layers of the bottoms of Latvian lakes that were formed in the 18th century, that is, before the plastic was ever even produced. So far, no harm to humans from the plastics around us has been observed, but what if this changes? How will the increasing use of plastics affect our environment?

Sources:

• Global plastic production, accumulation and future trends(external link, opens in a new window)
• Microplastics found in human breast milk for the first time(external link, opens in a new window).
• Muovihiukkaset kulkeutuvat aivoihin 2 tunnissa(external link, opens in a new window) (Microplastics travel to the brain in 2 hours, in Finnish)
• Mikromuoveja on vesistöissä kaikkialla Suomessa – Kallaveden muikussa 25 muovihiukkasta(external link, opens in a new window) (Microplastics found in water everywhere in Finland – Kallavesi vendace contains 25 plastic particles, in Finnish).
• Mikromuoveja löytyi Latvian järvien pohjista 1730-luvun kerrostumista – muoveja ei vielä silloin edes valmistettu(external link, opens in a new window) (Microplastics found in 1730s layers of Latvian lakebed – plastics were not even manufactured then, in Finnish). 

What if the ways in which we use plastics change significantly? This may involve, for example, a radical reduction in consumption, or the production of plastics only being allowed with a special permit while total bans increase.

What if… overproduction and overconsumption started to decrease? What would happen if increasing consumption started to decrease? What if there was no more fast fashion despite the recent boom in the sector? Would it be due to a change in legislation or culture or something else? What if the growth economy developed new features? Could the business sector obtain more economic value by means other than manufacture of new products?

What if… plastics gain new ground? What if plastics are used in new innovations, for example, in the pharmaceutical or aviation industry? What could plastic bring to innovations or what innovations could it enable?

What if… plastics get new competition? Plastic is a durable and versatile material suitable for many applications. It may still get competition from other materials in the future. Artificial intelligence found nearly 400,000 candidates for new materials that could change the production of products such as batteries and solar cells. What if we came up with a durable, multi-purpose material that decomposes when its intended use has ended but not before? Or a plastic that can be recycled almost forever without losing its properties, as is currently the case with glass and metal? What kind of material would combine the best features of plastic and eliminate those that could be harmful?

Sources:

• When consumers want less but demand more, how will your business grow?(external link, opens in a new window)
• New plastic biomaterials could lead to tougher, more versatile medical implants(external link, opens in a new window).
• Nexam Chemical to Develop Heat-resistant Composites for the UK Aerospace Sector(external link, opens in a new window).
• Tekoäly löysi lähes 400 000 ehdokasta uusiksi materiaaleiksi(external link, opens in a new window) (AI found almost 400,000 candidates for new material, in Finnish).

In this scenario, the use of virgin raw material is minimised. Every possible product is designed to be recyclable and the collected and recycled as raw material.

What if… all plastics really start to circulate? How does it change the journey from product design to waste management and the manufacturing and use of recycled plastic? What changes need to be made to the material so that all of it can be used as new raw material? What if a stronger reuse and waste reduction perspective is introduced into the design?

What if… AI helps with recycling challenges? What could AI bring to the use and recycling of plastics? Artificial intelligence has evolved tremendously in recent years. How could artificial intelligence, augmented reality or other technology facilitate the lifecycle of plastics?

What if… recycling plastics turns out to be too harmful? How can it be ensured that materials and products safe for people and the environment will be available in the future?

Sources:

• Making Renewable, Infinitely Recyclable Plastics Using Bacteria(external link, opens in a new window).
• Hundreds of toxic chemicals in recycled plastics(external link, opens in a new window).

The fifth scenario involves operating as part of a natural ecosystem and regenerating natural resources. Plastic is produced without emissions, leaks are plugged, any messes are cleaned up and harms caused are compensated for.

What if… we move from an exploitative economy to a regenerative one? While the prevailing economic model is often perceived as one harmful to nature, a regenerative economy revives and enlivens. A regenerative approach to economy has made its way to the discussions at the World Economy Forum and the policy programmes of the EU.

What if… we take responsibility for the global damage caused to the world? What innovations will there be in the future in terms of processing plastics into recycled plastic or eliminating litter and microplastics?

What if… bugs, enzymes and bacteria help solve our pollution problem? And what if an alliance with nature helps manage our pollution problems? In the future, nature may be utilised and used as a model for the production of plastic and the properties of the material. What if it could also help solve pollution problems?

Sources:

• Mitä on uusintava talous? 10 kysymystä Eeva Hellströmille(external link, opens in a new window) (What is generative economy? 10 questions for Eeva Hellström, in Finnish).
• Global Plastics Outlook: Trends in the secondary plastics markets(external link, opens in a new window).